What’s Coming in the 2025 Autumn Statement? What We Know So Far

As we move into August 2025, much of the talk—particularly for UK small businesses and individuals—centres on what Chancellor Rachel Reeves may unveil in the Autumn Statement (aka Autumn Budget). Although the exact date hasn’t been confirmed, it is expected between late October and early November 2025, aligning with past fiscal practice.

Why It Matters

• Fiscal Pressure: The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warns of a £40–51 bn public finance shortfall, putting serious strain on the Chancellor to raise revenue or cut spending
  
• Labour’s Pledge vs. Reality: Although Labour pledged no rises to income tax, VAT, or National Insurance for low‑income earners, more stealth or indirect tax changes are likely
  

Potential Tax Measures

1. Income Tax Threshold Freeze (a “stealth tax”)

• Freezing personal allowance and higher-rate thresholds beyond 2028 could generate around £7 bn annually, effectively taxing middle earners more without overt rate increases

2. Capital Gains Tax (CGT)

• Further reforms expected—such as narrowing exemptions or raising rates again—could impact investors and asset sales. The annual exempt amount may be reduced again
  

3. Inheritance Tax (IHT)

• From April 2026, new IHT rules on agricultural holdings and pension estate values could take effect. The Chancellor may go further—possibly extending the “gift taper” period from seven to ten years
  

4. ISA & Pension Reliefs

• ISAs may face change—particularly cash ISA limits —as part of a broader review. Salary sacrifice rules and pension tax relief for higher earners are also possible targets
  

Other Key Themes & Context

• Spending Review Implications: The June Spending Review set departmental budgets through 2028‑29, requiring the Autumn Statement to fund these commitments—especially health, defence, and energy infrastructure
  
• Economic Forecasts: Inflation is running near 3.3% with forecasts moderating through 2026. Rate cuts are expected in August and November, yet economic growth remains subdued
  

What to Look Out For

Possible Measure	Why It Matters
Income tax threshold freeze	Indirectly increases tax for rising earners
CGT adjustments	Affects asset sales, investments, and planning
IHT reforms	Impact rural estates and high-net-worth planning
ISA/pension rule changes	May reduce tax relief opportunities for savers

• Timing: Formal announcements likely between 28 October and 4 November 2025
  
• Fiscal Strategy: Reeves is reviewing IMF-inspired reforms to simplify UK fiscal policy and reduce volatility, but continued adherence to strict fiscal rules is expected
  

What Your Business Should Consider Now

1. Review your business tax & dividend plans—especially if considering asset sales ahead of any CGT changes.
   
2. Evaluate pension and ISA savings strategies, particularly for higher earners whose relief may be limited.
   
3. Look into inheritance planning—especially for rural estates or pension assets.
   
4. Plan for household budgeting changes, particularly for middle-income families facing frozen thresholds and rising living costs.
   

The Autumn Statement 2025 is shaping up to be pivotal. While headline tax increases may be avoided for now, stealth taxes (via frozen thresholds), CGT, IHT, and changes to ISA/pension reliefs are all highly likely.

If you’d like help reviewing your situation or preparing ahead of these changes, feel free to contact us.